Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Famitsu News- nothing much

428 port to PS3/PSP, Rune Factory 3 for DS. And that's about it. Boring week.

Comgnet Daily Update- 6/30

Tuesday, 6/30

The numbers for tonight:

Dragon Quest IX: 2325 (+24)

Monster Hunter Tri: 524 (+4) (split between three different versions)

Comgnet Daily Rankings

Wii Sports Resort sells almost 354,000 copies 1st week

According to Famitsu, Wii Sports Resort had a stellar start, more than doubling its first day sales to do almost 354K first week.

That is the 3rd highest 1st week for a Wii title behind Super Smash Bros. Brawl and Mario Kart Wii.

Hardware was not given out, which is interesting. Maybe there wasn't much of a bump afterall?

Monday, June 29, 2009

Weekly Overview

The main story is Wii Sports resort. Based on 1st day numbers, it should hit at least 300K, and might go as high as 350K. That would make it the 3rd biggest Wii debut ever, and the biggest game since Animal Crossing last November.

The real question is hardware- how much of a spike will we see? This past week, Wii sold about 19K. I don't think the bump will be that significant- Wii Sports Resort will likely sell to exisiting owners first. I do think we'll see a bump to maybe 32K or so, and possibly a new baseline of 25K or so as opposed to the 17-18K it had settled to.

It will also be interesting to see the legs on Friend Collection for DS. It nearly tripled its first day last week, so it should display some great legs.

In terms of releases coming out 7/2, I'm paying attention to Sega's Project Diva, a Idolmaster clone that has been doing well in the Comgnet rankings.

I'm also paying some attention to Grand Slam Tennis for Wii from EA Sports. Usually I wouldn't expect anything from this title, but it is the first title to integrate Moton Plus and has been rising in the Amazon rankings.

Comgnet Daily Update- 6/29

Monday, 6/29

The numbers for tonight:

Dragon Quest IX: 2301 (+36)

Monster Hunter Tri: 520 (+3) (split between three different versions)

Comgnet Daily Update

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Comgnet Weekly Review- 6/22-6/28

Wii Sports Resort- 323 orders.

Blaz Blue PS3
- 102 orders.

Wii Sports will probably do more than 323K going off its first day numbers, so Comgnet is probably a bit off. Blaz Blue is probably going to do 50K or so which is right in line with the 100 orders= 50K sales metric.

Comgnet Daily Update- 6/28

Sunday, 6/28

The numbers for tonight:

Dragon Quest IX: 2265 (+39)

Monster Hunter Tri: 517 (+11) (split between three different versions)

Comgnet Daily Update

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Comgnet Daily Update- 6/27

Saturday, 6/27

The numbers for tonight:

Dragon Quest IX: 2226 (+38)

Monster Hunter Tri: 506 (+19) (split between three different versions)

Comgnet Daily Update

Friday, June 26, 2009

Comgnet Daily Update- 6/26

Friday, 6/26

The numbers for tonight:

Dragon Quest IX: 2188 (+28)

Monster Hunter Tri: 487 (+4) (split between three different versions)

Comgnet Daily Rankings

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Wii Sports 1st day numbers- 150K

According to the reliable retailer blog Sinobi, Wii Sports Resort did 150K first day, 40% of the initial shipment.

Excellent start and should get above 300K first week.

For comparison, Wii Fit has the highest debut of a "Wii' title at 254K. (of course, it was supply constrained).

Wii Sports had a first week of 176K, Wii Play a first week of 171K.

Wii Music did 98K first week.


Neogaf Link

Media Create Hardware- 6/15-6/21

DSi 40,464
PSP 27,884
Wii 19,386
PS3 10,359
Xbox 360 6,734
DS Lite 5,531
PS2 3,770


-Wii up, will be interesting to see next week after Wii Sports Resort
-Everything else relatively steady

Famitsu Software Predictions- Wii Sports Resort

There are a few other releases, but Wii Sports Resort is the biggie.

Comgnet- Ended up with 166 pre-orders. It can be expected to at least double that number and probably will go higher. I'm predicting it will end up with at least 400 orders. Perfect Prosecutor ended up with 300 orders and did 200K. Based off Comgnet which skews much more towards the hardcore, it should do above 250K.

Amazon- It's being marked up, as is the Motion + attachment.

General hype- Seems pretty high. Commercials have been running since late May. Some Japanese posters on Neogaf are optimistic that it will do well.

I think it will break 300K and become the top debut for a "Wii" style game. (Of course, Wii Fit had major supply issues). It's being heavily marketed, is a sequel to the best selling game of this generation, and like other successes has a plastic peripheral to go with it.

Final Prediction
- 320K 1st week.

Comgnet Daily Update- 6/25

Thursday, 6/25/09

The numbers for tonight:

Dragon Quest IX: 2160 (+25)

Monster Hunter Tri: 483 (+10) (split between three different versions)

Comgnet Daily Rankings

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Comgnet Daily Update- 6/24

Wednesday, 6/24/09

The numbers for tonight:

Dragon Quest IX: 2135 (+22)

Monster Hunter Tri: 473 (+6) (split between three different versions)

Wii Sports Resort: 166 (+8)(Last day for Wii Sports Resort)

Comgnet Daily Rankings

Famitsu Software/Hardware Leak- 6/15-6/21

Famitsu Sales: 06/15 - 06/21

01. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Nintendo) - 100,000 / NEW
02. [PSP] Fate/Unlimited Codes Portable (Capcom) - 32,000 / NEW
03. [NDS] Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 Days (Square Enix) - 30,000 / 440,000
04. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G, PSP the Best (Capcom) - 14,000 / 782,000
05. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 12,000 / 3,422,000
06. [NDS] Sloane to MacHale no Nazo no Monogatari (Level 5) - 11,000 / 129,000
07. [NDS] Tago Akira no Atama no Taisou Dai-1-Shuu: Nazotoki Sekai Isshuu Ryokou (Level 5) - 10,000 / NEW
08. [NDS] Ace Attorney Investigations: Miles Edgeworth (Gyakuten Kenji) (Capcom) - 8,700 / 261,000
09. [PS3] Dynasty Warriors 6 Empires (Shin Sangoku Musou) (Koei) - 7,600 / 123,000
10. [NDS] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon Explorers of Sky (Pokemon) - 6,600 / 352,000

11. [NDS] Mario & Luigi RPG 3!!! (Nintendo) - 5,500 / 643,000
13. [NDS] Tago Akira no Atama no Taisou Dai-2-Shuu: Ginga Oudan Nazotoki Adventure (Level 5) - 4,700 / NEW
14. [NDS] Rhythm Heaven (Nintendo) - 4,600 / 1,744,000
15. [WII] Wii Sports (Nintendo) - 4,400 / 3,522,000
16. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 4,400 / 2,267,000
17. [NDS] Pokemon Platinum (Pokemon) - 4,300 / 2,421,000
18. [WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii (Bandai Namco Games) - 4,300 / 574,000
19. [WII] Chibi-Robo, Wii de Asobu (Nintendo) - 4,300 / 15,000
20. [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Oide yo Doubutsu no Mori) (Nintendo) - 4,100 / 5,017,000
21. [PSP] Half-Minute Hero (Yuusha 30) (Marvelous Entertainment) - 4,000 / 47,000
22. [NDS] WarioWare D.I.Y. (Made in Ore) (Nintendo) - 3,900 / 173,000
23. [NDS] Pro Yakyuu Team o Tsukurou! 2 (Sega) - 3,900 / 83,000
24. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots, PlayStation 3 the Best (Konami) - 3,700 / NEW
25. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo) - 3,700 / 3,455,000
26. [WII] Deca Sports 2 (Hudson) - 3,400 / 51,000
27. [WII] Pikmin 2, Wii de Asobu (Nintendo) - 3,400 / 104,000
28. [NDS] Kirby Super Star Ultra (Nintendo) - 3,400 / 1,112,000
29. [WII] Arc Rise Fantasia (Marvelous Entertainment) - 3,300 / 38,000
30. [PSP] Metal Slug Complete, SNK Best Collection (SNK Playmore) - 3,300 / NEW

__. [PS2] Metal Slug Complete, SNK Best Collection (SNK Playmore) - 2,600 / NEW
__. [PSP] Diamond and The sound of a Gun shot (Juusei to Diamond) (SCE) - 2,400 / NEW
__. [PS2] Samurai Spirits: Rokuban Shoubu, NeoGeo Online Collection the Best (SNK Playmore) - 1,700 / NEW
__. [PS2] Fate/StayNight [Realta Nua], PlayStation 2 the Best (Kadokawa Shoten) - 1,600 / NEW
__. [PS2] The King of Fighters '98 Ultimate Match, NeoGeo Online Collection the Best (SNK Playmore) - 1,400 / NEW
__. [PS2] World Heroes Gorgeous, NeoGeo Online Collection the Best (SNK Playmore) - 850 / NEW
__. [NDS] The * Kayou Generation (AQ Interactive) - 800 / NEW
__. [PS2] KOF Maximum Impact Regulation A, SNK Best Collection (SNK Playmore) - 610 / NEW


DSL 5500
DSi 37000
PSP 27000
Wii 17000
PS3 8700
PS2 4800
360 6100


*Thanks to Neogaf member bttb for the invaluable translations


- Very nice debut for Tomodachi Collection.

-Kingdom Hearts 358/2 days holding up much better than I expected.

-Assuredly Arc Rise Fantasia's last week in the top 30. Did a bit better than Obouro and Fragile but not by much.

-Taiko Wii keeps falling, it needs to stay in the chart a few weeks longer to overtake Mario and Sonic and break the top 10 for Wii software. Interested whether it gets a bit of a bump next week with Wii Sports Resort.

- Wii hardware goes up a bit in Famitsu. Possible Wii Sports Resort effect?

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Comgnet Daily Update- 6/23

Tuesday, 6/23/09

The numbers for tonight:

Dragon Quest IX: 2113 (+22)

Monster Hunter Tri: 467 (+5) (split between three different versions)

Wii Sports Resort
: 158 (+14)

Comgnet Daily Rankings

Software Insight for June 15-21 (Tsutaya via Anoop)

Anoop Gantayat's excellent site covering the Japanese gaming industry has offered its weekly software update from Japanese retailer Tsutaya. Long story short, the new Nintendo DS game Friend Collection is expected to be #1.

Get the scoop Here

Media Create Hardware Predictions- June 15-21

Should be a pretty uneventful week.

DS- 40K
PSP- 25K
Wii- 18K
PS3- 9.5K
360- 7.5K

Note- I'm not going to be predicting PS2 hardware sales. The system in terms of hardware is done.

Last Week's Numbers

Monday, June 22, 2009

Comgnet Daily Update- 6/22/09

Monday, 6/22/09

The numbers for tonight:

Dragon Quest IX: 2091 (+16)

Monster Hunter Tri: 462 (+5) (split between three different versions)

Wii Sports Resort: 144 (+12)

Comgnet Daily Rankings

Weekly Overview

For the sales numbers this week: Nothing all that interesting, software or hardware wise. I'm curious as to whether the PSP goes below 25K and if PS3 keeps falling, but that's about it.

For this week's releases, the big blockbuster is My Sims Racing. Just kidding- it is obviously Wii Sports Resort, Nintendo's big hope to reclaim momentum. It should be very fun and I'm curious as to the reception it receives. It clearly will do better than Wii Music, but will it have the appeal of the original Wii Sports and Wii Fit? I'm honestly not sure; the safe bet is to guess somewhere in between.

Proposed Weekly Schedule

This is subject to change of course, but here is what I would like to do on a weekly basis:

- Amazon Japan check, Weekly Overview

Tuesday- Weekly hardware predictions, Tuesday night Famitsu news leak

Wednesday- Leaked Famitsu software numbers

Thursday- Media Create hardware numbers, Famitsu software predictions.

Friday- Leaked 1st Day software numbers

Saturday- Week in Review

Sunday- Comgnet Weekly Review

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Comgnet Daily Update- 6/21/09

One of the sites I look at when trying to determine interest in certain titles is Comgnet, a Japanese retailer who puts up daily reservations on the top 20 titles. It's linked up front.

It's just one retailer so obviously this isn't exactly a fool proof determiner, especially of more casual titles, but it can show core gamer interest. Basically, if a title doesn't show well on this chart before release, it is usually not going to do well, at least initially. I've found that *on average* for every 200 reservations you get about 100,000 units sold for the week. Obviously it varies from title to title but it is a good starting point.

I'm tracking 3 titles at the moment- Dragon Quest IX, Monster Hunter Tri, and Wii Sports Resort.

The numbers for tonight:

Dragon Quest IX: 2075

Monster Hunter Tri: 457 (split between three different versions)

Wii Sports Resort: 132

Comgnet Daily Rankings


Added various links relating to the gaming industry.

The State of Gaming in Japan- Wii, PS3, handhelds, etc.

Right now is an interesting time in Japan, gaming wise. Almost every system is down year to year. Software sales keep creeping lower and lower- games that previously would barely chart in the top 30 creep towards the top 10. Handhelds dominate, the 360 is closing in on the PS3 in the weekly hardware charts, and so on.

Here is a primer:

DS- The top dog once again, currently selling around 40-45K a week and dominating the top 30 software sales. Currently getting by far the most RPG announcements. However, it is still significantly down from its 2007 heights and that is even with the DSi releasing last holiday.

- Has made a remarkable resurgence primarily based off the multi million selling Monster Hunter series. Was neck and neck with the DS for all of 2008 and was even outselling it for months. Software sales seem to be increasing, carving out a nice market in some of the more hardcore demographics. Probably has the most momentum of any system outside the DS. Still, it is also significantly down year to year and sales are slowing to the 25-30K range. Nothing huge is on the horizon, but there is a steady stream of releases.

Wii- Probably the most interesting situation. It started out sold out for nearly a year, regained momentum most of 2008 with a number of blockbusters and then since holiday 2008 it has been in a horrific, horrific slump. Wii Music and Animal Crossing failed to ignite sales last Holiday and its been down more than 50% YTY ever since. It was outsold by the PS3 in March and April and just now started consistently outselling PS3 again. However, all is not doom and gloom for the console. In fact, I'd argue it is well positioned to at least be second in line behind the DS, sales wise. Next Thursday Wii Sports Resort with Motion Plus is released, a sequel to the highest selling game of this console generation. Early indicators (which I will explain in a later post) are that it will sell very well. It may not have the impact of a Wii Fit, but it should at least increase the baseline hardware sales and raise awareness of the console in general.

Following a little bit more than a month later on August 1 is the release of Capcom's Monster Hunter Tri, the sequel to the portable sensation. This title could be absolutely huge. It is the first Third Party major franchise to hit the Wii and could tap into a demographic currently lacking- the youth of Japan. Marketing is huge, excitement is high, and this could help more than even Wii Sports Resort. There is some uncertainty as to how well the series will translate to the console space after exploding due to the ad hoc multiplayer of the PSP version, but I think its a relatively safe bet for a 500K debut and 1 million+ LTD with the potential for a lot more. Also, the new black Wii will be releasing the same day. Colors do not usually do much long term, but I think the new color could help adoption of Monster Hunter Tri and vice versa. Add to that Wii Fit Plus this Fall and New Super Mario Brothers Wii this Holiday, and I think Wii is in a good position.

- Is actually up Year to Year because of some impressive Q1 releases, but the run is up. Sales are already back to approaching sub-10K levels and there is nothing on the immediate horizon to spur sales. We might get Final Fantasy 13 late in the year which would be big, and we will probably see the PS3 Slim and a price drop, but there are so many maybe's and possibles that I just can't say with any certainty that things are really on the upswing. I expect about the same year end totals as the last two years, maybe up a bit. Software it has proven it can sell hardcore games and at the moment is probably a better bet for core games than the Wii assuming development costs aren't that high. So there is some positives for the system.

360- Doing much better than the first Xbox but still not really a factor for Japanese centric games. Maybe next gen?

Sales Charts- I use two tracking sites. I use Media Create for hardware, just because we get the official numbers sooner, and I use Famitsu for software because they provide numbers for the top 30 of the week, making long term tracking much easier (Media Create only has numbers for the top 10). Famitsu numbers officially come up a week or two after they are first released officially, and I get the number leaks from my favorite gaming message board, Neogaf, via the popular Japanese 2ch. message board.

Unlikely Obsession- the Video game Industry

So for some reason I have become addicted to following the gaming industry. I wasn't into gaming at all during most of High School and college, but since Holiday 2006 when I bought a Wii on a whim, I've become very interested in the business side of gaming. I don't know why exactly, but I find it very fascinating and surprising. One reason is you get weekly feedback on what is selling and what is not- Japan, the region I follow the closest, releases weekly sales chart showing the top 30 in software and hardware. If new trends are emerging, one can see them months before they appear in Reuters articles.

For example, lately the PS3 started outselling the Wii in Japan. It was the subject of numerous articles back in April when the monthly figures started in. However, if you had been paying attention, you knew that the PS3 due to some strong software in March and April and an anemic Wii release date, had in fact been seizing the momentum since late February. On the other hand, because the PS3 releases have dried up, the Wii is again back to outselling the PS3 weekly in Japan. Nothing in the mainstream media so far, but expect articles coming up soon about how the Wii is once again in front.

Like I said, Japan is currently the market I'm most interested in. The main reason is how unpredictable it is. Handhelds, the DS and PSP, dominate the hardware and software. Wii, despite slowing down, maintains a huge advantage over the PS3 and 360 but much of its software doesn't sell and 3rd parties are just now starting to support it. It's all very fluid and dynamic and it is hard to predict where it is going next. The U.S market on the other hand, is relatively predictable- consoles still generally rule, and the order for most of the last 2 years has been Wii>360>PS3, with 360 and Wii software dominating the monthly top 10 chart. Europe is generally the same.

I'll expand on the Japanese region a bit later today.