Right now is an interesting time in Japan, gaming wise. Almost every system is down year to year. Software sales keep creeping lower and lower- games that previously would barely chart in the top 30 creep towards the top 10. Handhelds dominate, the 360 is closing in on the PS3 in the weekly hardware charts, and so on.
Here is a primer:
DS- The top dog once again, currently selling around 40-45K a week and dominating the top 30 software sales. Currently getting by far the most RPG announcements. However, it is still significantly down from its 2007 heights and that is even with the DSi releasing last holiday.
PSP- Has made a remarkable resurgence primarily based off the multi million selling Monster Hunter series. Was neck and neck with the DS for all of 2008 and was even outselling it for months. Software sales seem to be increasing, carving out a nice market in some of the more hardcore demographics. Probably has the most momentum of any system outside the DS. Still, it is also significantly down year to year and sales are slowing to the 25-30K range. Nothing huge is on the horizon, but there is a steady stream of releases.
Wii- Probably the most interesting situation. It started out sold out for nearly a year, regained momentum most of 2008 with a number of blockbusters and then since holiday 2008 it has been in a horrific, horrific slump. Wii Music and Animal Crossing failed to ignite sales last Holiday and its been down more than 50% YTY ever since. It was outsold by the PS3 in March and April and just now started consistently outselling PS3 again. However, all is not doom and gloom for the console. In fact, I'd argue it is well positioned to at least be second in line behind the DS, sales wise. Next Thursday Wii Sports Resort with Motion Plus is released, a sequel to the highest selling game of this console generation. Early indicators (which I will explain in a later post) are that it will sell very well. It may not have the impact of a Wii Fit, but it should at least increase the baseline hardware sales and raise awareness of the console in general.
Following a little bit more than a month later on August 1 is the release of Capcom's Monster Hunter Tri, the sequel to the portable sensation. This title could be absolutely huge. It is the first Third Party major franchise to hit the Wii and could tap into a demographic currently lacking- the youth of Japan. Marketing is huge, excitement is high, and this could help more than even Wii Sports Resort. There is some uncertainty as to how well the series will translate to the console space after exploding due to the ad hoc multiplayer of the PSP version, but I think its a relatively safe bet for a 500K debut and 1 million+ LTD with the potential for a lot more. Also, the new black Wii will be releasing the same day. Colors do not usually do much long term, but I think the new color could help adoption of Monster Hunter Tri and vice versa. Add to that Wii Fit Plus this Fall and New Super Mario Brothers Wii this Holiday, and I think Wii is in a good position.
PS3- Is actually up Year to Year because of some impressive Q1 releases, but the run is up. Sales are already back to approaching sub-10K levels and there is nothing on the immediate horizon to spur sales. We might get Final Fantasy 13 late in the year which would be big, and we will probably see the PS3 Slim and a price drop, but there are so many maybe's and possibles that I just can't say with any certainty that things are really on the upswing. I expect about the same year end totals as the last two years, maybe up a bit. Software it has proven it can sell hardcore games and at the moment is probably a better bet for core games than the Wii assuming development costs aren't that high. So there is some positives for the system.
360- Doing much better than the first Xbox but still not really a factor for Japanese centric games. Maybe next gen?
Sales Charts- I use two tracking sites. I use Media Create for hardware, just because we get the official numbers sooner, and I use Famitsu for software because they provide numbers for the top 30 of the week, making long term tracking much easier (Media Create only has numbers for the top 10). Famitsu numbers officially come up a week or two after they are first released officially, and I get the number leaks from my favorite gaming message board, Neogaf, via the popular Japanese 2ch. message board.
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