Comgnet 12/31

KH:BBS- 849 (+17)

DQ6- 466 (+9)

RE:DC- Unchanged

Media Create- 12/21-12/27- New Super Mario Bros. Wii dominates

Media Create Dec 21-27

01. / 02. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 506,000 / 2,440,000
02. / 00. [NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (Nintendo) - 291,000 / NEW
03. / 03. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 227,000 / 2,317,000
04. / 01. [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) - 189,000 / 1,690,000
05. / 04. [NDS] Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver (Pokemon) - 125,000 / 3,465,000
06. / 05. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 114,000 / 1,315,000
07. / 06. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2 Fire/Blizzard (Level 5) - 99,000 / 908,000
08. / 11. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 72,000 / 1,568,000
09. / 12. [WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii 2 (Bandai Namco) - 64,000 / 200,000
10. / 08. [NDS] Professor Layton and the Flute of Malevolent Spirits (Level 5) - 64,000 / 559,000



11. / 07. [WII] PokePark Wii: Picachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.)
12. / 09. [PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega)
13. / 14. [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Nintendo)
14. / 16. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
15. / 13. [NDS] Pen 1 Grand Prix: A Penguin's Trouble Special (Konami)
16. / 18. [PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami)
17. / 24. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo)
18. / 27. [WII] Momotaro Railway 2010: Sengoku Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki (Hudson)
19. / 20. [WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei)
20. / 15. [PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai)
21. / 17. [PSP] Naruto: Shippuden Narutimate Accelerator 3 (Namco Bandai)
22. / 22. [NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami)
23. / 25. [NDS] Tamagotchi no Narikiri Channel (Namco Bandai)
24. / 19. [PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square Enix)
25. / 28. [WII] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Nintendo)
26. / 35. [NDS] Doraemon Baseball 2: Nettou Ultra Stadium (Namco Bandai)
27. / 00. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (reprint) (Capcom)
28. / 32. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (Square Enix)
29. / 00. [PS2] Little Busters! Converted Edition (Prototype)
30. / 30. [NDS] Metal Fight Beyblade: Bakutan Cyber Pegasus (Hudson)

Comgnet 12/30

KH:BBS- 832 (+31)

DQ6- 457 (+8)

RE:DC- 21, 18, 39 total

Famitsu Top 10 12/21-12/27- New Super Mario Bros Wii, Zelda at the top

1. [WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii
2. [DS] The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks
3. [DS] Tomodachi Collection
4. [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII
5. [DS] Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver
6. [WII] Wii Fit Plus
7. [DS] Inazuma Eleven 2
8. [WII] Wii Sports Resort
9. [WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii 2
10. [DS] Professor Layton and the Devil’s Flute


Link

Lepton Orders- 12/21-12/27

Top 10

NSMB Wii- 1086 (+216)

FF13- 623 (-2118()

Z:ST- 620

Friend Collection- 519 (+217)

Pokemon G/S- 197, 149, 346 total (+92)

PSP2- 267 (+16)

DQ9- 254

Monster Hunter Portable 2G BEST- 194 (+73)

Gundam V- 167 (+8)

WSR- 133 (+60)

Other numbers

NSMB DS- 131 (+21)

Pikachu Adventure- 128 (+49)

Momoturo Wii- 104

ToG- 86 (+6)

MK Wii- 79

SW3- 73

Comgnet 12/29

KH:BBS- 801 (+26)

DQ6- 449(+9)

RE:DC- 20, 18, 38 total

Comgnet 12/28

KH:BBS- 775 (+22)

DQ6- 440

RE:DC- 20, 18, 38 total

Comgnet 12/27- Weekly Orders (New Super Mario Bros Wii, Final Fantasy 13)

KH:BBS- 753 (+24)

RE:DC- 19 for the standard edition, 17 for the collectors edition for a total of 36. (the same amount of days before release, Umbrella Chronicles had 37 orders)

Weekly Orders- Starting this week I am going to list the complete top 20, since to the best of my knowledge no one else keeps track of weekly orders

1. NSMB Wii- 912 (down 27 from last week)(if this is somewhat in line nationwide, expect another 500K+ week for NSMB Wii)

2. Friend Collection- 472 (up 259 from last week)

3. Z:ST- 453

4. FF13- 431 (down 2351, down by a multiplier of 6.45, which would equal a 232K 2nd week)

5. Little Busters PSP- 212

6. Layton Devil's Flute- 162

7. PSP2- 162 (down 1)

8. Gundam V- 103 (up 14)

9. Wii Fit Plus standalone- 120 ( up 43)

10. WSR- 115 (up 62)

11. Pokemon Silver- 115

12. Mario and Sonic Winter Olympics DS- 111

13. Taiko 2 Wii- 103 (up 51)

14. Pikachu Adventure- 94 (up 20)

15. Pokemon Gold- 92

16. Penguin DS- 84

17. NSMB DS- 75

18. Inazuma 2 Fire- 70

19. Inazuma 2 Blizzard- 69

20. Naruto PSP- 64

Comgnet 12/26

KH:BBS- 729 (+21)

DQ6- 423 (+12)

RE:DC- 18 (+1)

Lepton 12/24

KH:BBS- 1440

DQ6- 1031

RE:DC- 57

Basara 3 PS3- 42

Comgnet 12/25

Missed yesterday, here is today's:

KH:BBS- 708

RE:DC- 17

A few famitsu numbers- New Super Mario Bros. Wii sells 570K, almost to 2 million, plus hardware

[NDS] Tomodachi Collection - 188k (2.065m)
[WII] New Super Mario Bro. Wii - 570k (1.972m)
[NDS] Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver - 109k
[WII] Wii Fit Plus - 104k
[NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2 - 85k
[WII] NHK Kouhaku Quiz Gassen - 5.6k

DSL - 13k
DSi - 111k
DSi LL - 75k
PSP - 78k
PSP go - 3.2k
Wii - 208k
PS3 - 245k
360 - 7.1k


Link

Is the Famitsu leak dead?

This is the 2nd week in a row without any Famitsu top 30 weeks and the first week without any sort of data at all via sinobi. Looks like we'll have to wait an extra week for Famitsu numbers from now on.

Media Create- 12/14-12/20

PS3 237,086 237,086
Wii Wii 191,915 191,915
DSi DSi 95,227 95,227
PSP PSP 79,194 79,194
DSi LL DSi LL 75,241 75,241
DS Lite DS Lite 12,879 12,879
Xbox 360 Xbox 360 8,965 8,965
PSP go PSP go 3,260 3,260
PS2 PS2 2,982 2,982

Famitsu Software- 12/7-12/13

Famitsu Dec 7-13

01./01. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 464,824 / 1,401,558 (-50%)
02./00. [WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai Games) - 143,309 / NEW
03./00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square Enix) - 117,391 / NEW
04./06. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Friend Collection) (Nintendo) - 96,917 / 1,877,103 (+37%)
05./00. [PSP] Naruto: Shippuuden N-Ultimate Accelerator 3 (Namco Bandai Games) - 70,841 / NEW
06./09. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 66,069 / 1,060,500 (+26%)
07./11. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 65,929 / 3,124,150 (+81%)
08./02. [PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (SEGA) - 63,082 / 347,965 (-78%)
09./00. [360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square Enix) - 60,517 / NEW
10./07. [WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Big Adventure (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 55,125 / 112,310 (-4%)

11./05. [NDS] Prof. Layton and the Devil's Flute (Level 5) - 49,657 / 435,069 (-41%)
12./03. [PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam vs. Gundam NEXT PLUS (Namco Bandai Games) - 48,640 / 286,292 (-80%)
13./00. [PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 46,138 / NEW
14./13. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire/Blizzard (Level 5) - 42,993 / 731,759 (+45%)
15./04. [WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 33,868 / 160,514 (-73%)
16./00. [PS2] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 31,184 / NEW
17./17. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 29,840 / 1,406,753 (+39%)
18./00. [NDS] Luminous Arc 3: Eyes (Marvelous) - 22,357 / NEW
19./21. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 2 (Namco Bandai Games) - 22,042 / 83,527 (+39%)
20./20. [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Nintendo) - 20,294 / 82,662 (+25%)
21./00. [NDS] Extreme Escape: 9 Hours, 9 Persons, 9 Doors (Spike) - 16,967 / NEW
22./08. [PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 16,478 / 72,267 (-70%)
23./12. [NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 16,281 / 50,624 (-53%)
24./24. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 15,490 / 5,602,410 (+31%)
25./18. [WII] Momotarou Dentetsu 2010: Sengo Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki (Hudson) - 14,569 / 79,151 (-31%)
26./23. [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 13,901 / 350,278 (-5%)
27./27. [NDS] Tamagotchi no Narikiri Channel (Namco Bandai Games) - 13,436 / 55,564 (+74%)
28./10. [PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 12,901 / 60,370 (-73%)
29./19. [NDS] Stitch! DS Rhythm and Ohana Adventure (Disney Interactive Studios) - 12,767 / 32,906 (-37%)
30./00. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 12,032 / 2,388,921

Famitsu Top 30- 11/30-12/6

01./00. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 936,734 / NEW
02./00. [PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (SEGA) - 284,883 / NEW
03./00. [PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam vs. Gundam NEXT PLUS (Namco Bandai Games) - 237,652 / NEW
04./00. [WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 126,646 / NEW
05./01. [NDS] Prof. Layton and the Devil's Flute (Level 5) - 84,122 / 385,412 (-72%)
06./02. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Friend Collection) (Nintendo) - 70,977 / 1,780,186 (+4%)
07./00. [WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Big Adventure (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 57,185 / NEW
08./00. [PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 55,789 / NEW
09./03. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 52,303 / 994,431 (+9%)
10./00. [PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 47,469 / NEW

11./05. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 36,520 / 3,058,221 (-1%)
12./00. [NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 34,343 / NEW
13./06. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire/Blizzard (Level 5) - 29,662 / 688,766 (+20%)
14./00. [360] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 28,085 / NEW
15./00. [WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes W (Namco Bandai Games) - 22,832 / NEW
16./00. [NDS] Metal Fight Beyblade: Bakutan Cyber Pegasus (Hudson) - 21,906 / NEW
17./10. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 21,435 / 1,376,913 (+41%)
18./04. [WII] Momotarou Dentetsu 2010: Sengo Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki (Hudson) - 21,034 / 64,582 (-52%)
19./00. [NDS] Stitch! DS Rhythm and Ohana Adventure (Disney Interactive Studios) - 20,139 / NEW
20./07. [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Nintendo) - 16,205 / 62,368 (-21%)
21./09. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 2 (Namco Bandai Games) - 15,841 / 61,485 (-3%)
22./00. [NDS] Monster Busters (Namco Bandai Games) - 15,658 / NEW
23./08. [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 14,655 / 336,377 (-16%)
24./25. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 11,805 / 5,586,920 (+107%)
25./19. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) - 7,955 / 4,046,945 (-5%)
26./14. [WII] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Nintendo) - 7,920 / 66,154 (-16%)
27./23. [NDS] Tamagotchi no Narikiri Channel (Namco Bandai Games) - 7,709 / 42,128 (+12%)
28./21. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2 G (BEST) (Capcom) - 7,571 / 1,093,586 (+6%)
29./00. [NDS] Cross Treasures (Square Enix) - 7,494 / NEW
30./12. [PSP] J-League Pro Soccer Club o Tsukurou! 6: Pride of J (SEGA) - 7,393 / 133,548 (-44%)

Comgnet 12/23- Resident Evil:Dakrside Chronicles debut

KH:BBS-671 (+27)

RE:DC- 15

Famitsu top 10- 12/14/-12/20

1. [PS3] FFXIII (Square Enix)
2. [Wii] NSMB Wii (Nintendo)
3. [NDS] Tomodachi (Nintendo)
4. [NDS] Pokemon (Pokemon)
5. [Wii] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo)
6. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2 (Level 5)
7. [Wii] Pokemon Wii (Pokemon)
8. [NDS] Layton 4 (Level 5)
9. [Wii] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo)
10. [PSP] Queens Blade (Namco Bandai)

Link

(copy and paste the link into your browser to get Famitsu links to work)

Comgnet 12/22- Kingdom Hearts and Zelda update

KH:BBS- 644 (+10)

Z:ST- 198 (+10)

Lepton Weekly Orders- 12/14-12/20. Final Fantasy 13 and New Super Mario Bros. Wii on top

Top 10

FF13- 2741 (preorders were 5321)

NSMB Wii- 870 (last week, 882)

Friend Collection- 312

Pokemon G/S- 129, 125- 254 total

PSP2- 251

Gundam V- 159

Dragon Quest 9- 150


Modern Warfare 2 PS3- 126 (427 last week)

Monster Hunter Portable 2G BEST- 121

NSMB DS- 120

Other numbers

Pikachu's Adventure- 79

Tales of Graces- 78 (429 last week)

Wii Sports Resort- 73

Monster Hunter 3- 30

Early Media Create release- Final Fantasy 13, PS3 hardware, New Super Mario Bros. Wii all see big numbers

Final Fantasy 13 1.501 million sold 1st week, PS3 hardware up to 237K

Perhaps more surprisingly, Super Mario Bros. Wii reaches 1.9M sold and did 530K this week- an increase of about a 100K.

At this point NSMB Wii could reach 3 million by the end of the year and 5 million LTD.

Link

Comgnet 12/21

KH:BBS- 634 (+9)

Z:ST- 188 (+16)

Is there a Wii hardware revision coming in 2010?

We've all heard the speculation about Wii HD in 2010 or a new console in 2011. On the surface it seems unlikely. The Wii is still the best selling console worldwide and common logic says you keep selling a console that is making you money.

However, if you look closer at Nintendo's home region, there seems to be some possibility of some sort of hardware revision coming in 2010.

What appears most likely is a revision adding HD capability, possibly bundling Motion + and the CC Pro and possibly some sort of memory solution. This would lead to HD games becoming more easily ported and would also lead to unified controller in the hands of every Wii buyer, something I have argued is important. I don't expect any radical chance to the system specs.


Possible reasons for a hardware revision


1. Nintendo's own words

Nintendo has admitted to studying high definition.

Here are some quotes from Nintendo's most recent financial briefing:

During the firm's recent financial results briefing, Genyo Takeda, general manager of Nintendo’s Integrated R&D Division, said that the industry’s shift to high definition “appears a natural flow", although he stopped short of confirming HD support for future products.


“Since our division has been reviewing and developing a number of hardware, we are looking into many different things, including HD and SD… However, we have not come to the stage where we can announce which is the most appropriate means. Since an increasing number of the TV sets at home around the world are becoming HD today, it will be natural for a machine to be able to generate graphics that people will be accustomed to see on HD televisions. Since the ordinary TV programmes are now shifting to HD, moving to HD appears to me a natural flow.

“Regarding the question of SD or HD, it must depend on each software. For example, we have to ask ourselves if HD is really necessary to develop Wii Fit. Won't HD be better for the games like Pikmin? The developers should choose the most appropriate graphical format depending on the software they make. To Nintendo, our theme is how we can prepare the SDK library to cater to the needs of the developers, with which the developers can more easily develop their games.”

Link


Obviously this is not conclusive of anything, but this shows that Nintendo has HD on its mind and is communicating to investors that it is aware of the rising HD penetration rates.

2. Nintendo has a history of such revisions

This doesn't need much explanation. In many ways Nintendo has tried to replicate the success of the DS with the Wii, giving many of its biggest DS games Wii versions. It would follow that Nintendo would try and repackage the Wii and gain sales similar to what it has done with the DS.

3. Nintendo has faltered in its home market.

Worldwide Nintendo is still doing very well. However, for most of 2009 it has struggled in Japan, and since September has lost momentum to the PS3. Nintendo is still a Japanese company and they want to win their home region. If Nintendo decides that software alone is not enough, a hardware revision could happen.

4. Nintendo's lineup for 2010.

The first three arguments were more general. This is specific. As of now, December 21st 2009, the Wii's 2010 lineup looks incredibly sparse.

First party wise, we know of Reginleiv in February, a niche title from a niche developer, and that's it for dated software. We know Galaxy 2 is coming, and we know WiiRelax is presumably on its way, in addition to Metroid: Other M.

But that is basically it. Additionally, there are still many games from Nintendo's 2008 Japanese conference still not dated.

To further add to the sparse lineup, many Nintendo franchises have not appeared on the Wii at all- Star Fox, Kirby, Pikmin, F-Zero, and 2007 franchises that should have been announced for second iterations have not been unveiled- Paper Mario, Mario Party, and Fire Emblem.

The situation is even worse third party wise. Right now there are 2 relatively high profile games announced for 2010, both from Capcom- Resident Evil Darkside Chronicles and Basara 3. That is it. Now, either 3rd party development has dropped off a cliff or software is being held back. I think its unlikely to be the former because games coming out in 2010 were presumably in development in 2007 and 2008 when the Wii was still generally selling very well.

Add it all up and you have a simple conclusion- there are literally dozens of games and franchises from Nintendo that should be announced but haven't been. There is also basically no known 3rd party software announced. Nintendo hasn't had any conferences since E3 2009 in late May. It wouldn't surprise me if we are getting some sort of upgrade in 2010 which would explain the lack of software announcements. Of course, it also wouldn't surprise me if Nintendo just doesn't have anything in the pipeline and 2010 is going to wind up being the worst year in the Wii's history.

Nothing left to do but find out.

Final Fantasy 13 sells 1.516 million first week , PS3 hardware sells 245K

Excellent start for FF13- this could lead to at least a small second shipment and with any sort of legs it could reach 2 million.

Highest PS3 hardware week by far, beating the Slim launch where it sold 150K or so. Still, with all the talk of 200K bundles selling out, I was thinking it might be something higher. Wii is assured of the YTD and December victories now.

Link

Comgnet projection- New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Final Fantasy 13

Again, this is a very limited tool but I think its interesting to see how the Comgnet number end up matching up.

NSMB Wii did 1.125 better this week. Applying that number to last weeks NSMB Wii number, this week would get sales of 523K. I doubt this will actually be the number, but I think we can expect a minimal dropo ff.

For FF13, 79% of the total orders were preorders. If we start with 1.15, which is probably close to the "over a million without the bundles" P.R SE released Friday, we would get about 1.4M sales for the week.

Also, Pikachu would see another increase and Graces would see a 2nd week around 20K if the Comgnet ratio's hold out. For Graces I expect a bit better, but not much.

Comgnet 12/20

KH:BBS- 625 (+20)


Z:ST- 172 (+22)


Weekly Orders

FF13- 2782

NSMB Wii- 939

Friend Collection- 214

PSP2- 161

Gundamv V- 89

Wii Fit Plus standalone- 77

Pikachu- 74

ToG- 61

WSR- 53

Taiko 2- 52


Short story- Wii games get a bump. NSMB Wii actually went up from last week. FF13 did 79% of its total orders from the preorders, which would be in line with FFX and FF12 first day/first week ratio's.

The Wii/PS3 2009 race- can PS3 win?

If, as described in the last post, the PS3 sells 350K or so, could the PS3 overtake the Wii with only one week left?

Its possible. I think we can assume the Wii will rise between 40-60K (2008 rose 39k, 2007 rose 62K) this week and get to 180-190K.

The Wii is currently ahead by approximately 138K. If the PS3 sells 350K and the Wii sells 180K, the PS3 would then move ahead by about 42K. In that scenario I think the Wii will overcome that in the last week. Wii sales should remain steady, maybe decrease slightly, but PS3 sales with the FF13 first week gone should go down significantly, maybe down to 120K or so. Of course, if the PS3 sells 400K this week then it becomes that much harder for the Wii to overcome that lead.

PS3 Hardware this week- how high can it go?

I've waffled on this from the start. I've thought for a while it would be somewhere just south of 200K which would still be the highest PS3 week ever.

However, we now have a rumor of 200K special bundles being introduced and reports from a reliable neogaf poster that at least in the Tokyo area the bundles are sold out.

If there really were 200K bundles and they are close to a sell out, could we see hardware sales approaching 400K?

That number still seems a bit high to me- it would be 2.5 times higher than the previous week high for the console.

I do think we could see a 325-350K week though, if the bundle number was correct.

I doubt we're going to see all 200K bundles sold, but even if it sold 150-175K, we can probably assume the normal Slim numbers were at least double that which could give us a 350K week.

The good news is we should get FF13 and PS3 news tomorrow morning with a Famitsu special report.

Comgnet 12/19

KH:BBS- 605 588 (+17)

Z:ST- 150 (+12)

Amazon Japan Spot check- 12/19

A caveat- Amazon rankings are of course incredibly unreliable and should not in any way be relied upon. That said, I think they can show trends that later bear themselves out when we get actual software numbers.

- As in real life, NSMB Wii keep trading spots at the top with each going in and out of stock

-Friend Collection has been near the top, currently at #3 since the holiday season started

-Hardware wise, PS3 has been lodged at #4 while Wii is at 37 and #10

-Wii software in general is rising. Wii Fit Plus bundle is at #6, Wii Sports Resort is at #8, the Pikachu Adventure game is at #13, and most surprisingly the Taiko Wii bundle is at #14. For perspective, when that software launched a month ago it never got higher than the mid-30's.

- NSMB Wii is at #20

- Other games hanging around the top 25- PSP2 at #19, Layton at #12, Momorotou at #29, Gundam V at #31 and Graces at #25

- SW3 is at #45

- You can detect an increase in Wii awareness by old games suddenly rising into the top 100. Mario Kart Wii is at #37, Wii Sports is at #53, and Smash Bros. Brawl is at #65.

- Finally, Monster Hunter Tri standalone, marked down to 3100 yen, over half off, makes it back to the top 100 at #91.

Comgnet 12/18

KH:BBS- 588 (+7)

Z:ST- 138 (+4)

Something Odd- Final Fantasy 13's 1st day sales are not coming from a tracker

But instead they are coming from SE's internal trackers. Might not mean anything, but it is odd that for the first time in memory we did not get a Famitsu/Enterbrain leak and all we have to go on is SE's press release, which was extremely vague and did not include bundle sales.

Monday morning when Famitsu will presumably give FF13's first week sales and PS3 hardware will be interesting.

Extremely Early Final Fantasy 13 Lifetime Sales Projection- 1.78 million

We don't have an exact number, but I think we're probably looking at between 1.1M and 1.15M copies sold day one. FFX and FF12 had about 63% of total sales come from the first day,and applying that same ratio to the 1.1-1.15 range you get about 1.75M or a bit above. Given the 1.8 million first shipment, I think it will get close to that number and end up around 1.78M or so.

Not a disaster, but still a significant downturn from FF12 (78%).

Final Fantasy 13 comparisons

Per sinobi, FFX did 1.456M first day and 1.75M the first week. FF12 did 1.44M the first day and 1.84M the first week.

For FFX- 294K the rest of the weekend, with 83% of first week sales coming from the first day.

For FF12, 400K the rest of the weekend, with 78% of first week sales coming on the first day.

From this data, you get a sense of how frontloaded the series truly is.

If FF13 did 1.15M including the bundles, we would have 1st week of 1.4M with FFX's ratio, a bit less than 1.5M if it follows FF12's ratio.

New Super Mario Bros. Wii exceeds 2 million shipped in Japan

Great start for NSMB Wii, and I expect a sell through of 2.5 million or so by the 1st week of January.

Link

Final Fantasy 13- Exceeds 1 million copies sold first day, not including bundles

Stellar start, I'm thinking 1.4-1.5M copies first week.

Link

Another link

Official Media Create Hardware- 12/7- 12/13

Wii 135,898
PS3 75,086
PSP 71,885
DSi 68,184
DSi LL 58,006
DS Lite 11,376
Xbox 360 10,646
PSP go 3,077

- The Wii goes up approximately 138K YTD, 110K for December

Early Media Create leak from thedrill

These are usually pretty accurate.

Here is the hardware, check out the software at the blog.

DSｉ 66400
DSi LL 59300
DSL 10800
Wii 134600
PS3 77800
PS2 2500
PSP 72100
PSP go 3200
X360 9800

Final Fantasy 13 First Day Sales out tonight- check back later

1st day numbers from the sinobi blog have been appearing around 2:00 A.M EST lately, so hopefully we will have 1st day numbers for FF13 in the next 7 hours or so.

Comgnet 12/17

Kind of slow now with all the big holiday hitters out


Z:ST- 134 (+4)

KS:BBS- 581 (+26)

Lepton 12/17

Not much of note, except FF13 which finishes at 5321 orders.

Zelda:ST up to 279

Link

Final Fantasy 13- Comgnet Comparisons

FF13 ended up at 2201

FF12- 3510. FF13 did 62% of that number, which would give it a 1st week of 1.14M.

DQ 9- 2917. FF13 did 75% of that number, which would give it a 1st week of 1.75M.

Pokemon G/S- 2298. FF13 did 96% of that number, which would give it a 1st week of 1.351M.

What number will it be closer to? My best is on Polemon G/S.

Wada confirms 1.8M FF13 day 1, 200K in bundles

Pretty insane first shipment. Either SE and retailers have massively miscalculated or FF13 is going to sell better than anyone thinks.


Link

Comgnet 12/16- Final Fantasy 13's Final Day

FF13- Final day numbers- 2201 (+57)


For comparisons sake:


FF12 ended up at- 3510

DQ 9- 2917

Pokemon G/S- 2298

Other numbers-

KH:BBS- 555 (+8)

Zelda:ST- 130 (+8)

So why did Tales of Graces fail?

Yes, its early, but given how frontloaded the Tales series tends to be, we can say right now that Graces is very disappointing. It sold less first week than Symphonia:KoR, a poorly received spinoff and sold over 80K worse than Vesperia PS3.

Why did it do so poorly?

A lot of potential reasons come to mind, some more valid than others


1- "Third Party games don't sell on Wii"


I think there is some validity to this statement, as there really are few 3rd party successes on the platform. I don't think its that simple though- what seems to me the likeliest possibility is that the PS2 audience has simply not moved to the Wii in any substantive numbers making most core PS2 franchises likely candidates for weak sales. Now, for Graces that excuse holds less weight given the presence of Symphonia on the GameCube and the spinoff on the Wii last year.

2- Final Fantasy 13

This is something I discounted early but it might have well played a factor. I think its possible FF13 completely overshadowed Graces to such an extent that normal RPG players that would buy Graces day 1 are instead waiting for FF13 and will buy Graces used in a month.

3- The Symphonia spinoff led to skepticism about Graces


From most accounts, the spinoff was not a quality product. Is it possible that this made it less likely that people would be interested in Graces even though it is the superior game? Possibly. How else do you explain a mainline entry selling less initially than the poorly received spinoff?

4- The market for RPG's on the Wii is very low and the Symphonia spinoff only did as well as it did because of the Symphonia name.

This seems possible as well. There really is no RPG market on the Wii, probably Nintendo's fault as well as 3rd parties. And yet Symphonia:KoR did decent, i.e over 200K. That led me and other to just assume a better effort would do better. But maybe the only reason KoR did that well was because of the Symphonia name and the true market for RPG's on the Wii is generally much lower.

Whatever the reason, Graces is a clear disappointment and no matter how valid some of these excuses may be, there comes a point where the exceptions swallow the rule- and in this case, I feel confident in saying Graces is an example of a game that has done better on other platforms, namely the PS3, and was hurt by being on the Wii.

Full Famitsu Hardware

Hardware:

WII 142.000
PS3 76.000
360 10.000+
DSI 70.000
DSILL 60.000
DSL 10.000
PSP 71.000
PSPgo 3.300

More Famitsu Numbers- Tales of Graces bombs, Modern Warfare 2 does well

Graces- 143K. For perspective, that is lower by 8K than the poorly received Symphonia spinoff. This might be the end of Tales on the Wii.

Modern Warfare 2- PS3- 117K, 360, 61K

Naruto PSP- 71K

PSP2- 63K

Gundam V PSP- 49K

Wii Fit Plus- 66K

Pikachu Wii- 55K

SW3- 34K


Sinobi


NeoGaf translation

Early Famitsu Numbers- Wii 142K, PS3 76K, NSMB Wii 465K

Famitsu

Neogaf confirmation

Obviously a great start for NSMB Wii and amazing Wii hardware sales.

The YTD and December race between the Wii and PS3 is essentially over, and next week the Wii has a decent chance at beating PS3 even with FF13.

Last second random software predictions for 12/7-12/13

NSMB Wii- 475K

ToG- 160K

PSP2- 150K

Gundam PSP- 50K

SW3- 45K

Tsutaya- Expects at least a million for Final Fantasy 13 1st week, possibly first day

From Anoop:


Matsuo says that the game is pretty much assured of selling a million in its first week. He even feels that it could reach this figure in one day.

Either would be an impressive feat for the PS3, as the system has yet to see a single million seller here in Japan.

Famitsu 12/15- New Monster Hunter spinoff confirmed

[PSP] Monster Hunter: Poka Poka Airu Mura

From the scans, it looks like some sort of Animal Crossing game maybe? Interesting

Comgnet 12/15

FF13- 2144 (+40). FF12 was at 3425 (+92) at the same point.



Pokemon G/S was at 2204 (+53)



Other numbers:


KH:BBS- 547 (+5)

Zelda:ST- 122 (+7)

Lepton Orders- 12/7-12/13

NSMB Wii- 882

ToG- 429

MW2 PS3- 427

PSP2- 338

Naruto PSP- 267

Gundam V- 241

sw3- 84

Comgnet 12/14

FF13- 2104 (+33). FF12 was at 3333 (+92) at the same point.

DQ9 was at 2730.

Pokemon G/S was at 2151

Other numbers:


KH:BBS- 542 (+5)

Zelda:ST- 115 (+9)

Famitsu software, new games- 11/30-12/6

I was going to wait until we got a top 30 but apparently that leak is gone for now.

NSMB Wii- 937K
PSP2 - 285k
GvGN+ - 238k
Tokimemo 4 - 47k
LBP - 4100
SM3 - 126k
Pokepark - 57k
AC2 PS3 - 56k
AC2 360 - 28k
Pocket 12 - 34k
Kaiju Busters - 16k

Link

Predicting Final Fantasy 13

Finally, the most anticipated PS3 game for years comes out in Japan this Thursday.

Almost everyone expects some sort of downturn from its heights of 2 million plus.

What should we expect?

Well, unless SE makes a massive 2nd shipment its 1st week sales are going to be capped at 1.3 million or so.

That would be well under FF12 and FFX's first weeks of 1.84M and 1.75m respectively.

Now, if that shipment is sold out immediately, its always possible SE could make an unexpected second shipment and still capture that demand, but for now its safe to assume the 1st week sales will be capped somewhat.

The issue then is because the series tends to see massive drops (FF12 dropped to 217K 2nd week, FFX dropped to 233K). Its conceivable that FF13 could top out at 1.5M or so simply because the initial shipment was too small leading to the used market taking sales in the weeks ahead.

Predictions..I'll go with 1.2M first week and 1.6M LTD, which would be a significant downturn from FF12 but not a total disaster.

Media Create- 11/30-12/6

Wii 106,555
PSP 67,880
PS3 57,782
DSi LL 53,791
DSi 51,635
DS Lite 8,367
Xbox 360 5,314
PSP go 3,412
PS2 2,277

Final Fantasy 13- First Day Shipment- 1.15M, Possible 1.3M total

Link

Tales of graces Comgnet Tales of Versus comparison

Disclaimer- Comgnet is a single online retailer and is not necessarily representative of the actual performance of titles. However, it is probably the best resource we have and so for this post I'll give it more credence than it probably deserves.


Graces did 71.5% of its total orders with its preorders (357/498. Versus did 62.3& of its orders from preorders. In terms of the real software numbers, Versus did 58% of its 1st week from its 1st day.

So, taking this ratio- if Graces does 71.5% of its business from first day, the total would be about 158K first week. This would be about 150K if we took away 7-8K for 1st day bundle sales which could skew the comparison.

If the percentage is 4.5% lower, similar to Versus' real number, the number would be 67% and so the first week would be 168K first week.

One other analysis- Versus had 216 orders after the preorders. Graces had 141, 65.2%. Versus did 64K after its first day- 65.2% of 64K is 42K, so from this analysis Graces would do 155K.

So what does this all mean? First, I think its likely to beat ToS:KoR's first week. That conclusion is not just based on comgnet, but just common sense- KoR was a poorly received spinoff that logically would get more sales during its first day and then tail off drastically.

I think if we assume that we would get 160K or so, then add 5-10K for holiday rush and bundle sales, we will see a 165-170K first week for Graces.

Comgnet 12/13

FF13- 2071 (+70)


Weekly Orders

NSMB Wii- 834 (44% of last week, which would be 412K).

ToG- 498 (72% of orders were preorders, Versus had 573, 62%)

MW2 PS3- 253

Naruto PSP- 236

PSP2- 214

Gundam Vs- 161

PSP WE- 102

PS2 WE- 88

SW3- 65 for the regular edition- 29.5% of the regular edition's orders last time.

Wii Fit Plus- 63 for the separate

Pikachu- 58

Momotaro- 36

Lepton 12/13

They didn't rank Graces.

FF13- 4523

Zelda- 164

RE:DC- 53

Galaxy 2- 50

Comgnet 12/12

FF13- 2001 (+38)

Comgnet 12/11

FF13 1963 (+41)

ToG- 113k first day, comparisons:

ToS:KoR- 79.5% of sales first day. (would do about 141K)

ToV PS3- 64.7% (177k)

ToV 360- 70% (160k)

Tales of V- 58% (195k)

November 2009 NPD

PlayStation 2 203.1K
PlayStation 3 710.4K
PSP 293.9K
Xbox 360 819.5K
Wii 1.26M
Nintendo DS 1.70M


CALL OF DUTY: MODERN WARFARE 2* 360 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD Nov-09 4.20M
CALL OF DUTY: MODERN WARFARE 2* PS3 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD Nov-09 1.87M
NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. WII WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Nov-09 1.39M
ASSASSIN'S CREED II 360 UBISOFT Nov-09 794.7K
LEFT 4 DEAD 2 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS Nov-09 744.0K
WII SPORTS RESORT* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Jul-09 720.2K
WII FIT PLUS* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Oct-09 679.0K
ASSASSIN'S CREED II PS3 UBISOFT Nov-09 448.4K
DRAGON AGE: ORIGINS* 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS Nov-09 362.1K
MARIO KART W/ WHEEL WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Apr-08 315.0K

Comgnet 12/10

FF13- 1921 (+37)

Samurai Warriors 3 Initital shipment- about 130K

First day numbers were 55K for the regular version for 57% sell through, 23K for the LE version at 69% sell through. Extrapolating those numbers, you would have a first shipment of 97K for the regular version, 33K for the LE for a total 130K.

Comgnet 11/9

FF13 1884 (+21)

ToG- Finishes up at 357 (+7)

This compares to the previous Tales games the following:

Tales of Vesperia- 483

ToRM2- 590

Tales of VS- 357

Tales of Hearts Anime edition- 236, CG version at least 35 but under 54

Tales of Symphonia KoR: 406

Other software finishing:

MW2 PS3- 121, 360 version 51

PSP WE 2010 at 44

Naruto PSP 140

Comgnet 11/8

FF13- 1863 (+35)

ToG- 350, (+3)

Lepton Weekly Orders- 11/30- 12/6

NSMB Wii- 1726

Gundam V Gundam 2- 916

PSP2- 775

SW3- 220,81- 301 total

Pikachu- 70

Momotaru- 66

MH Tri- 37

Lepton Weekly Orders- 11/23- 11/29

Layton 442

Momotaro 89

MH Tri 57

Comgnet 12/7

FF13 1824 (+20)

ToG- 347 (+8)

New Super Mario Bros. Wii sells 936,734 copies in its first week in Japan

Link

NSMB Wii Comgnet Weekly Order comparisons

44% of DQ 9, which would equal 1.049 million (69% of total orders were preorders, in comparison, NSMB Wii had 57% as preorders)

78% of Pokemon, which would equal 1.099 million

Its hard to remember what Monster Hunter had, but I believe it was around 1200. If that is true, NSMB Wii did 1.569 for 914K

12/6 Comnget Update

FF13- 1804 (+41)

ToG- 339 (+11)



Weekly Orders

NSMB Wii- 1883 (+811 from the preorders)

PSP2- 1177 (+642)

GvG- 766 (+364)


SW3- 217, 59, 33 for 309 total (+ 172 including 33 for the Treasure Box, would be 139 without that)

Tokimeki 4- 150

Stitch 132

Kamen Rider- 121

Power Pocket 12- 75

Pikachu- 56

Wii Fit+ - 52 for the standalone

Comgnet 12/15

FF13 1763 (+50)

ToG 328 (+5)

Comgnet 12/4

FF13- 1713 (+29).

ToG- 323 (+7)

Pikachu finishes at 45

1st day sales- New Super Mario Bros. Wii with steady start

NSMBW - 420k
PSP2 - 202k
GvsGN+ - 170k
Tokimemo 4 - 28k
LBP - 2200
Sengoku Musou 3 - 81k
AC2 PS3 - 28k
AC2 360 - 21k
Power Pro Pocket 12 - 23k
Kaiju Busters - 10k
Yggdra Unision - 4700

For SW3, DM2 did 106K first day and 162 1st week, so 65% on first day.

Comgnet 12/3

FF13- 1684 (+42) FF12 was at 2447, +72

ToG- 316 (+9). ToS was at 361.

Zelda ST- 66

Pikachu- 41

End of Eternity PS3 enters at 34

Lepton 12/3

FF13 3904

NSMB Wii 1627 (+790)

Gundam V- 902

PSP2- 714

ToG- 646 (+85)

SW3- 229, 134- 363 (+100)

Power Pocket 12 DS finished with 73 orders

Assassins Creed 2 PS3 finished with 180

Pikachu debuts with 84

Famitsu Software- 11/23- 11/29

DSi LL　75.000
WII　42.000
PSP　40.000
PS3　39.000
DSi　35.000
DSL　4.600
PSP Go　3.900
360　3.200
PS2　2.500

01 . [NDS] Professor Layton and the Flute of Malevolent Destiny (Level 5) - 301.000 / 301.000
02 . [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 68.000 / 1.709.000
03 . [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 48.000 / 942.000
04 . [WII] Momotaro Railway 2010: Sengoku Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki (Hudson) - 44.000 / 44.000
05 . [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 37.000 / 3.022.000
06 . [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire / Blizzard (Level 5) - 25.000 / 659.000
07 . [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Nintendo) - 21.000 / 46.000
08 . [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 18.000 / 322.000
09 . [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii: Dodon to 2 Yome! (Namco Bandai) - 16.000 / 46.000
10 . [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 15.000 / 1.355.000

11 . [360] Mushihimesama Futari Ver 1.5 (Cave) - 15.000 / 15.000
12 . [PSP] J-League Pro Soccer Club! 6: Pride of J (Sega) - 13.000 / 126.000
13 . [PSP] La Pucelle: Ragnarok (Nippon Ichi Software) - 11.000 / 11.000
14 . [WII] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Nintendo) - 9.500 / 58.000
15 . [PS3] Dragon Ball: Raging Blast (Namco Bandai) - 9.400 / 90.000
16 . [WII] Naruto: Shippuuden Ryujinki (Takara Tomy) - 8.900 / 8.900
17 . [PSP] Higurashi Daybreak Portable: Mega Edition (Alchemist) - 8.700 / 8.700
18 . [NDS] Doraemon Baseball 2: Nettou Ultra Stadium (Namco Bandai) - 8.700 / 28.000
19 . [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) - 8.400 / 4.039.000
20 . [NDS] Strike Witches: Aoi no Dengekisen - Shin Taichou Funtousuru! (Russel) - 7.800 / 7.800
21 . [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (Capcom) - 7.100 / 1.088.000
22 . [NDS] 4 Warriors of Light: Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) - 7.000 / 179.000
24 . [PSP] Armored Core: Silent Line Portable (From Software) - 6.300 / 24.000
25 . [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 5.700 / 5.575.000
26 . [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 5.700 / 2.370.000
27 . [PS3] Ratchet & Clank Future: A Crack in Time (SCE) - 5.400 / 20.000
28 . [360] Left 4 Dead 2 (Electronic Arts Victor) - 5.300 / 33.000
29 . [NDS] Mega Man Battle Network: Operation Shooting Star (Capcom) - 5.300 / 44.000
30 . [WII] Karaoke Joysound Wii DX (Hudson) - 4.800 / 4.800

xx . [PSP] Puyo Puyo 7 (Sega) - 3.900 / 3.900
xx . [NDS] Cooking Mama 3 (Taito Corporation) - 3.900 / 3.900
xx . [WII] Puyo Puyo 7 (Sega) - 3.200 / 3.200
xx . [PSP] L no Kisetsu: Double Pocket (5pb.) - 3.200 / 3.200
xx . [PSP] Gakuen Heaven: Boy's Love Scramble! (NEC Interchannel) - 3.100 / 3.100
xx . [PS3] Fallout 3 (PlayStation 3 the Best) (Bethesda Softworks) - 3.000 / 3.000
xx . [PSP] Itsuka Kono Te ga Kegareru Toki ni: Spectral Force Legacy (Idea Factory) - 2.300 / 2.300
xx . [NDS] Tea Dog's Room DS 4: Ochaken Land de Hotto Shiyo? (MTO) - 1.800 / 1.800
xx . [PS2] Nobunaga's Ambition: Tenka Sousei with Power-Up Kit (Koei Teiban Series) (Koei) - 1.500 / 1.500

First day numbers for random Nintendo games

NSMB DS- 480K

Mario Kart Wii- 300K

SSBB- 500K

Galaxy- 130K

Animal Crossing= 175K

NSMB Wii- Comgnet Comparisons

With 1072 preorders, NSMB Wii did:



1.55 times better than NSMB DS (would equal 1.336m, 744K first day)

2.38 times better than Mario Kart Wii (1.447m, 714K)

5.33 times better than Galaxy (1.364m, 692K)

2.7 better than Animal Crossing Wii (828k, 472k)

1.09 better than MH Tri (635K in 2 days)

.88 as well as SSBB (718K, 440k)

Comgnet 12/2

Final day for NSMB Wii, SW3, Kamen Riders, PSP, and Gundam

NSMB Wii- 1072 (+94). NSMB DS was at 688, +79

ToG- 307 (+6)

SW3- 84, 53 for 137 (+8)

Kamen Riders- 69 (+8)

FF13- 1642 (+32) FF12 was at 2375, +41

PSP- 535 (+17). The first finished with 303

Gundam V Gundam- 402 (+18) The first finished with 393

Comgnet 12/1

NSMB Wii- 978 (+94). NSMB DS was at 609, +68

ToG- 301 (+7)

SW3- 78, 51 for 129 (+6)

Kamen Riders- 61 (+8)

FF13- 1610 (+21)

PSP- 518 (+20)

Gundam V Gundam- 384 (+7)