Monday, December 14, 2009

Predicting Final Fantasy 13

Finally, the most anticipated PS3 game for years comes out in Japan this Thursday.

Almost everyone expects some sort of downturn from its heights of 2 million plus.

What should we expect?

Well, unless SE makes a massive 2nd shipment its 1st week sales are going to be capped at 1.3 million or so.

That would be well under FF12 and FFX's first weeks of 1.84M and 1.75m respectively.

Now, if that shipment is sold out immediately, its always possible SE could make an unexpected second shipment and still capture that demand, but for now its safe to assume the 1st week sales will be capped somewhat.

The issue then is because the series tends to see massive drops (FF12 dropped to 217K 2nd week, FFX dropped to 233K). Its conceivable that FF13 could top out at 1.5M or so simply because the initial shipment was too small leading to the used market taking sales in the weeks ahead.

Predictions..I'll go with 1.2M first week and 1.6M LTD, which would be a significant downturn from FF12 but not a total disaster.

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