Sunday, December 20, 2009

The Wii/PS3 2009 race- can PS3 win?

If, as described in the last post, the PS3 sells 350K or so, could the PS3 overtake the Wii with only one week left?

Its possible. I think we can assume the Wii will rise between 40-60K (2008 rose 39k, 2007 rose 62K) this week and get to 180-190K.

The Wii is currently ahead by approximately 138K. If the PS3 sells 350K and the Wii sells 180K, the PS3 would then move ahead by about 42K. In that scenario I think the Wii will overcome that in the last week. Wii sales should remain steady, maybe decrease slightly, but PS3 sales with the FF13 first week gone should go down significantly, maybe down to 120K or so. Of course, if the PS3 sells 400K this week then it becomes that much harder for the Wii to overcome that lead.

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