Sunday, December 13, 2009

Tales of graces Comgnet Tales of Versus comparison

Disclaimer- Comgnet is a single online retailer and is not necessarily representative of the actual performance of titles. However, it is probably the best resource we have and so for this post I'll give it more credence than it probably deserves.

Graces did 71.5% of its total orders with its preorders (357/498. Versus did 62.3& of its orders from preorders. In terms of the real software numbers, Versus did 58% of its 1st week from its 1st day.

So, taking this ratio- if Graces does 71.5% of its business from first day, the total would be about 158K first week. This would be about 150K if we took away 7-8K for 1st day bundle sales which could skew the comparison.

If the percentage is 4.5% lower, similar to Versus' real number, the number would be 67% and so the first week would be 168K first week.

One other analysis- Versus had 216 orders after the preorders. Graces had 141, 65.2%. Versus did 64K after its first day- 65.2% of 64K is 42K, so from this analysis Graces would do 155K.

So what does this all mean? First, I think its likely to beat ToS:KoR's first week. That conclusion is not just based on comgnet, but just common sense- KoR was a poorly received spinoff that logically would get more sales during its first day and then tail off drastically.

I think if we assume that we would get 160K or so, then add 5-10K for holiday rush and bundle sales, we will see a 165-170K first week for Graces.

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